Political Islam in Indonesia: More Conservative, But Not Necessarily Support Neo-Islamist

This article is a response to Mohamed Nawab Mohamed Osman's article titled "The Future of Islamism in Indonesia: Neo-or- post Islamism?” Mr. Osman's article has carefully analyzed the current situation of Islamism in Indonesia and positively contributed to the discussion of political Islam in the world's largest Muslim country. Furthermore, he has argued that neo-Islamist movements, led by HTI and FUI, would continue to grow in Indonesia because of their ability in building social capital amongst state institutions as well as in attracting young Islamists who are "disappointed" by compromises made by Islamist political parties.

However, before we conclude that neo-Islamist movements will continue to grow and reshape Indonesia’s political scene, several considerations must be taken into account. This will provide us with a more comprehensive perspective for analyzing this development.  

Declining Electoral Support, Increasing Conservatism

Saiful Mujani and William R. Liddle have argued that electoral support towards Islamic political parties in Indonesia is declining from one election to another. One can see the decline by looking at Islamic political party support over the last two election cycles, whereby support towards all Islamic political parties in the 2004 and 2009 elections were only 40 percent and 25 percent respectively. The latest survey conducted by CSIS in January 2012 shows that support toward Islamic political parties such as the Prosperous and Justice Party (PKS) is declining significantly from 7.8 percent to only 3.1 percent. The same is happening with the United Development Party (PPP).

However, as argued by Anies Baswedan and Sunny Tanuwidjadja, while electoral support towards Islamic political parties is declining, political Islam has actually been rising in recent years. There is a penetration of Islamic forces into so-called nationalist, secular, and Pancasila-based political parties. For example, most of these political parties have recently supported a number of laws that contain Islamic values, both at the national and regional level.

Furthermore, recent events in Indonesia have also indicated that the penetration of political Islam is increasing and is able to force the government to accommodate their demands. Irshad Manji’s book tour, Lady Gaga’s concert, the Cikeusik Massacre, and the Yasmin Congregation’s church are all examples showing that the government is willing to make compromises to meet demands of several hardliner groups in Indonesia. The joint ministerial decree on the Ahmadiyah is an example whereby the government has bent under pressure of Islamic hardliner groups.

Additionally, the Jakarta Post also reported that according to the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT), trends show that radicals have gained positions in mosque management, which have traditionally been held by followers of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah. Moreover, the survey by the Institution for Islam and Peace Studies (LaKIP) also shows that there are significant numbers of Indonesian students who were willing to become involved in acts of religious violence as well as in vandalizing houses of worship of other religious believers.

These facts confirm that Indonesian Muslims are becoming more conservative. Nevertheless, does this support the claim that Neo-Islamist groups are also increasing in Indonesia?

Several Considerations

Before we answer that question, there are several factors that need to be taken into account regarding whom Muslims in Indonesia will channel their supports to in order to accommodate its values and demands.

First, the phenomenon of declining party ID is not solely the problem of Islamist political parties. Current trends show that party ID is declining in most political parties in Indonesia. It is also indicated in the number of swing voters in Indonesia. CSIS' survey shows that there are 48.4 percent voters who have not decided yet which party that they will select if elections were to be held today.

Political parties have disappointed Indonesian voters due to corruption and scandals that implicated their cadres. Based on LSI’s survey in December 2011, political parties were viewed as the most corrupt political institution in Indonesia – a factor that lowers party ID. Some scandals also involved several politicians from Islamic political parties. For example the case of Arifinto (PKS) who was caught on camera watching a pornographic video during the plenary session, or the case of Misbakhun, also from PKS, who was found guilty of crafting a fictitious mortgage letter to obtain credit.

Second, when they lost their confidence in political parties, there are other alternatives for Muslims in Indonesia to channel their voices other than through neo-Islamist groups. In this case, we will be focusing on the voters of Islamic political parties. First, as suggested by Mr. Osman, voters may go to organizations such as FUI or HTI. However, we also should bear in mind that there are also other more moderate organizations like NU and Muhammadiyah where Muslims can channel their aspirations. Second, the voters might choose other political parties which suit their values, needs, aspirations or simply because of the personal appeal of the party’s leader. This could mean that they would choose non-Islamic parties or secular-nationalist political parties. Third, they may not use their right to vote and become passive during the election, becoming what is known as golput (white group) in Indonesia.

Third, we also have to consider the fact that youth are not overly interested in politics. A survey conducted by LSI, Goethe Institut, and Friedrich Naumann Foundation shows that the majority of Muslim youths are not interested in politics. Nevertheless, they also show a high degree of trust in democracy and democratic institutions, which could mean democracy, is seen as the only game in town. Changes should be done in a democratic way.

Although the social pendulum is moving towards a more conservative stance, Indonesian Muslims are still in the moderate quadrant. As long as nationalist political parties and leaders still accommodate some Islamic values and can present strong governance and leadership, the issue of establishing an Islamic country is no longer relevant for Muslims in Indonesia. They might be more conservative, but not necessarily want to change the country’s ideology and turn Indonesia into an Islamic state.

Yoes C. Kenawas is a Research Analyst at the Indonesia Programme of the S. Rajaratnam ofInternational Studies, Singapore.