Introduction
It has been almost 100 days since Joko Widodo—popularly dubbed Jokowi—was inaugurated as the seventh President of the Republic of Indonesia. In the past three months, there have been several important events that may shed some light on Jokowi’s achievements and missteps. Jokowi’s performance thus far may represent his governing style and, more importantly, influence his legitimacy during the next five years. Overall, it is most useful to understand each of Jokowi’s actions as an equilibrium in the power struggle between the elites of political parties and the popular masses that played a crucial role in helping him become the second directly elected president in post-Suharto Indonesia.
When Jokowi started his presidency he had to confront a residue of political competition from the presidential election period. This continuing residue is a polarization between political parties that supported Jokowi’s candidacy—known as the Great Indonesia Coalition (KIH), including PDIP, Nasdem, PPP, and Hanura—versus parties that supported Prabowo Subianto—known as the Red-and-White Coalition (KMP), including Gerindra, PAN, PKS, and Golkar. KMP was able to outmaneuver KIH in the parliament by securing several top leadership positions in the House of Representatives (DPR). Additionally, KMP was able to abolish direct local elections (pemilukada), but then this decision was annulled by a presidential decree made by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). The securing of the leadership positions and the abolishment of local elections presented a serious challenge for Jokowi’s administration. KMP showed its legislative power superiority which can be interpreted as a threat to Jokowi’s administration in the future. Some early predictions suggested that Jokowi’s main challenge in pursuing his agenda is how he can compromise with KMP.
Although a threat from KMP seemed feasible, Jokowi managed to calm the tension by making a humble visit to Prabowo Subianto during the latter’s birthday. The effect was invaluable. Prabowo attended Jokowi’s inauguration and even saluted when Jokowi mentioned him in the first presidential speech. More importantly, the tension in the House has relaxed and the two factions have been able to negotiate power sharing in the parliament. Thus far, it seems national unity has been restored and Jokowi will face less challenge in executing his programs.
The real challenges
Apparently, the real challenge comes not from KMP but from KIH, particularly Jokowi’s own party PDIP. The first challenge is related to Jokowi’s cabinet composition dominated by members of parties who supported him in the 2014 election. Key ministerial positions—such as Coordinating Minister for Political, Law and Security Affairs; Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs; Minister for State Owned Enterprises; Minister of Home Affairs; Minister of Human Rights and Law; and Minister of Defense—were allocated to confidants of the supporting parties. Puan Maharani, the daughter of PDIP Chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri, even holds a position as a coordinating minister. The appointments of party associates ignited the first disappointment among Jokowi’s supporters because he promised to select professionals to fill his cabinet. Apparently, Jokowi has had to make a deal with the political parties.
It is important to note, however, that some ministers in Jokowi’s cabinet have shown an extraordinary performance in a short period of time. The most outstanding is the Minister of Maritime and Fisheries Susi Pudjiastuti. After being criticized for having tattoos and for smoking in the Presidential Palace complex just after her inauguration, Susi made some breakthroughs to improve the state’s income from the fisheries sector. Her most famous policy has been to sink illegal fishing boats owned by foreign businesses. Susi’s extraordinary performance is undoubtedly brings a positive impact to Jokowi’s administration. Additionally, not all of the ministers who came from political parties show a bad performance. For instance the Minister of Work Force Hanif Dhakiri has also shown decisiveness by actively combating illegal and inhumane domestic worker agencies.
The second challenge from PDIP to Jokowi’s presidency came during the ongoing brouhaha related to the nomination of the Chief of Indonesian National Police. Jokowi nominated Budi Gunawan as the new police chief. Budi used to be Megawati’s adjutant and it is reported that he has a close relationship with the PDIP chairwoman. Therefore, despite negative rumors about Budi, Jokowi still nominated him as the sole candidate. Allegedly, Megawati’s influence in Budi’s nomination has been significant. The problem is that the Anti Corruption Commission (KPK) named Budi as a suspect in a corruption case after his nomination. KPK’s decision received strong resistance from those who supported Budi’s nomination. The resistance started with an intimate picture of the Chief of KPK Abraham Samad with Miss Indonesia Elvira Devinamira that went viral. The second attack on KPK was directed at the Deputy Chief of KPK Bambang Widjojanto. Bambang was arrested by the Police Crime Investigation Unit (Bareskrim) on a charge of perjury when he was still a lawyer for local election disputes. This second attack received a strong response from various civil society groups because they perceive it as retaliation from the police for KPK’s decision related to Budi’s status as a suspect.
The public demanded that Jokowi take prompt and decisive action to prevent further criminalization of KPK’s leadership. Jokowi’s response, however, has not been satisfying. Volunteers who were the backbone of Jokowi’s success in 2014 showed their disappointment in his leadership, but his decision is understandable. He is caught between Megawati’s pressure to nominate Budi and the public pressure to stop criminalization of KPK and revoke Budi’s nomination as the police chief. It is a difficult situation for Jokowi because on the one hand, he needs Megawati and PDIP to support his presidency. On the other hand, he owes a lot to his supporters who demanded that he revoke Budi’s nomination and defend KPK.
Beyond the first 100 days
The ongoing situation will likely be the primary pattern of Jokowi’s presidency. He has to deal with pressures from political party elites, be it KIH or KMP, and his supporters who demand that he be a decisive leader and side with public interests. Friction between the parties’ and the volunteers’ interests will be the key to understanding Jokowi’s policies during the next five years.
There are three possible scenarios that can be inferred from this situation. First, Jokowi may try to balance the interests of the supporting parties vis-a-vis the interests of the public. Perhaps such balancing will be an ideal solution for Jokowi to please both sides. This balance, however, seems difficult to achieve if we look at the dynamics of the past 100 days. The elite’s interests, most of the time, will conflict with the public interests. If Jokowi follows this scenario, there is no doubt that his popularity will sink because most likely the elite’s interests will prevail against the public interests.
Second, Jokowi may try to moderate the elite’s pressure by involving a third party in crucial decision-making. Jokowi pursued this strategy when he involved KPK and the Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Center (PPATK) during his cabinet formation process. By involving these agencies, Jokowi was able to build a strong argument to reject the nominations from the supporting parties’ elites. For instance, initially Budi Gunawan was nominated to fill one of the ministerial positions. Jokowi, however, revoked Budi’s nomination because KPK and PPATK pointed to a suspicious financial activity in Budi’s bank account. In the future, it is possible for Jokowi to repeat this strategy either by using existing agencies or by creating ad-hoc committees or even by involving KMP in the decision-making process.
Third, Jokowi may defect from PDIP and resort to another party. This option is possible but not feasible because changing party affiliation means only that Jokowi would seek protection from other parties that would come with certain concessions. As an Indonesian expression conveys, this move would be like escaping form a crocodile to a tiger. It does not solve his dilemma—whether he should side with party elites or prioritize the public interests.
This situation is unfortunate for Jokowi. His first one hundred day honeymoon period has come to an end earlier than expected. More importantly, his closest ally PDIP is now turning into his worst enemy. This circumstance has never happened before because previous Indonesian presidents were also key actors in their own party (except B.J. Habibie during the transitional period). I do not intend to present a grim outlook on Jokowi’s presidency, but the ongoing situation shows that he is facing a totally different political game compared to his predecessors. It is important, therefore, to remind Jokowi’s supporters in the presidential election not to put all the blame on him or to abandon him. Jokowi needs them most as he faces the crucial challenges that lie ahead.
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